{
 "question": "9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/9-0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-06",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-12",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.0645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.052,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.068,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.0635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.0685,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.068,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.066,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.0645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.0645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.064,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.06,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.0605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.0605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.0605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.0585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.0575,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.0715,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.068,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.069,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.063,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.0645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.0625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.064,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.072,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.0685,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.064,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.0675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.0645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.0615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.0625,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}