{
 "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-sep-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-06",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-28",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Above 8",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.885,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.94,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.95,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.945,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.935,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.895,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 9",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.775,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.805,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.77,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.77,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.76,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.735,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 10",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.68,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-30",
     "probability": 0.715,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.45,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 11",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-30",
     "probability": 0.5,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.17,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 12",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-30",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.13,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.04,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 13",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-30",
     "probability": 0.05,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.02,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 14",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-30",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}