{
 "question": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-december-31",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-11-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-10",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-17",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-18",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-13",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-14",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-15",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-16",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-18",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-19",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-20",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-21",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-23",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-24",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-25",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-26",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-27",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-28",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-29",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-30",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-31",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.07,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}