{
 "question": "KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq-by-december-31",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-13",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.05,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.0415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.0415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.043,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.048,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.036,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.0725,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.0725,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.0735,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.0735,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.0725,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.0725,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.0735,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.0735,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.05,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.051,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.0505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.0495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.05,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.05,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.049,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.049,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.049,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.049,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.049,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.0645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.062,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.0615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.0615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.0615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.0615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.0615,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}