{
 "question": "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/mitch-mcconnell-steps-down-from-senate-before-his-term-ends",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-08-12",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-26",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.375,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.27,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}