{
 "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/predict-fun-fdv-above-1-5b-one-day-after-launch",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-11-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.227,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.1825,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.2145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.171,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.208,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.222,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.2215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.2215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.222,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.2235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.2235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "probability": 0.224,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "probability": 0.2225,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-17",
     "probability": 0.231,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-18",
     "probability": 0.228,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.2315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.236,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.279,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.287,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.2665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.2765,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.277,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.276,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.276,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.284,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.2395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.246,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-04",
     "probability": 0.3075,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}