{
 "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-08",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.032,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.0185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.0125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.0115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.0095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.0125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.0115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.0145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.0115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.0105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.0095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.0065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.0055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.0065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}