{
 "question": "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-september-30",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-31",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-09",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.048,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.0425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.0415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.049,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.0535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.0525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.0655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.061,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.0615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.0595,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.0625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.0435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.0415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.042,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.042,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-30",
     "probability": 0.042,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.042,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}