{
 "question": "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-december-31",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-31",
 "first_tracked": "2026-10-16",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-16",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-18",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-19",
     "probability": 0.34,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-20",
     "probability": 0.34,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-29",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-30",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-31",
     "probability": 0.375,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}