{
 "question": "Who will be the next leader out before 2027?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027.html",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-07-09",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1).",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Keir Starmer",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.9755
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.972
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.981
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Gustavo Petro",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.004
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.0045
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.003
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Xi Jinping",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.0005
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.0005
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0005
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.0015
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.0015
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0005
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Sanae Takaichi",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.0005
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.0005
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0005
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Claudia Sheinbaum",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0005
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0005
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}