{
 "question": "Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-be-trump-s-next-director-of-national-intelligence",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-07-28",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Jay Clayton",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-06-12",
     "probability": 0.926,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-13",
     "probability": 0.935,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-14",
     "probability": 0.928,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-15",
     "probability": 0.947,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-16",
     "probability": 0.961,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-17",
     "probability": 0.988,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-18",
     "probability": 0.79,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-19",
     "probability": 0.74,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-20",
     "probability": 0.68,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-21",
     "probability": 0.71,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-22",
     "probability": 0.83,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-23",
     "probability": 0.82,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-24",
     "probability": 0.8,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-25",
     "probability": 0.78,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-26",
     "probability": 0.77,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-27",
     "probability": 0.78,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-28",
     "probability": 0.72,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-29",
     "probability": 0.78,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-30",
     "probability": 0.77,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-01",
     "probability": 0.76,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "probability": 0.84,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-03",
     "probability": 0.84,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-04",
     "probability": 0.85,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-05",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-06",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.85,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.88,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.908,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.944,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.945,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.9365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.9345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.944,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.969,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.96,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.947,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.955,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.955,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.9565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.9565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.9855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.9965,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}