{
 "question": "Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-2026-maine-senate-election",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-08-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Troy Jackson",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.575,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.62,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.62,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.62,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Susan Collins",
   "history": [
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     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.375,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.39,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.375,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.365,
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    },
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     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.375,
     "source": "tracked"
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-08-02",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}