{
 "question": "Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election.html",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-07-09",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1).",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "the Republicans",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.395
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.405
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.405
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "JD Vance",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.1995
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.2005
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.2015
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Gavin Newsom",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.1195
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.1205
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.118
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Tucker Carlson",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.0205
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0195
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Andy Beshear",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.0095
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.0095
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0105
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Greg Abbott",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.0085
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.0085
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0085
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Stephen Smith",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.0075
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.0075
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0075
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Tulsi Gabbard",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.0075
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.0075
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0075
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}