{
 "question": "Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-alaska-senate-race-in-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-11-02",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Dan Sullivan",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.49,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "probability": 0.37,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-31",
     "probability": 0.29,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}