{
 "question": "Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-iowa-senate-race-in-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-11-02",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "the Republicans",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.58,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.58,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.57,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.61,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.575,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.575,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.515,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "the Democrats",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.42,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.42,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.42,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.42,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.44,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.44,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.44,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.39,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.485,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.485,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.465,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}