{
 "question": "Who will win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-09-06",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "United Russia (ER)",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.984,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.9855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.9865,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.987,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.9845,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.9845,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.9845,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.9855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.988,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.9885,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.9905,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.9875,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.989,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.983,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}