{
 "question": "Who will win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-south-carolina-senate-race-in-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-11-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-24",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "the Republicans",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.865,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.865,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.87,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.865,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.685,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "probability": 0.705,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "the Democrats",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.08,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}