{
 "question": "Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-2026-be-the-fifth-hottest-year-on-record",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-20",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}