{
 "question": "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-september-30",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-25",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.0515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.0415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.047,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.0375,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.0275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.0365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.0315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.0315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.0315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.0495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.0365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.034,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.0315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.033,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.0325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.034,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.028,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.023,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.0215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.0245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.017,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}