{
 "question": "Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-mistral-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-december-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-11-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-31",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-04",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}