{
 "question": "Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-mohammed-bin-salman-cease-to-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-saudi",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-11-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-14",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.037,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.0445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.048,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.047,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.0525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.046,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.039,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.039,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.043,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.0425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.0425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.0425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "probability": 0.0495,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}