{
 "question": "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-openai-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-december-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-11-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-16",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "probability": 0.11,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-17",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-18",
     "probability": 0.11,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-29",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-31",
     "probability": 0.0535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.056,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.0515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-04",
     "probability": 0.0525,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}