{
 "question": "Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-openai-not-ipo-by-december-31-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-11-05",
 "first_tracked": "2026-10-02",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.97,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.9505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.9515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "probability": 0.9545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "probability": 0.9545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "probability": 0.954,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "probability": 0.9525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.9515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.9515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-13",
     "probability": 0.9525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-14",
     "probability": 0.9525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-10-15",
     "probability": 0.965,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "probability": 0.9655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "probability": 0.9665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-10-18",
     "probability": 0.9665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-10-19",
     "probability": 0.9665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-10-20",
     "probability": 0.963,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-21",
     "probability": 0.9625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-10-27",
     "probability": 0.9565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-29",
     "probability": 0.947,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-30",
     "probability": 0.941,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-31",
     "probability": 0.943,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.9605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.9595,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
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     "source": "tracked"
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     "date": "2026-11-04",
     "probability": 0.9715,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-05",
     "probability": 0.9725,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}