{
 "question": "Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-russia-enter-kramatorsk-by-december-31-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-11-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.29,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.3,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.3,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.29,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "probability": 0.205,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.155,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.155,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-18",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-20",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-21",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-23",
     "probability": 0.12,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-24",
     "probability": 0.12,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-25",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-26",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-27",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-28",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-29",
     "probability": 0.07,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-30",
     "probability": 0.08,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-31",
     "probability": 0.08,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-04",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}