{
 "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-through-the-strait-of",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-07-26",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Before Nov 1, 2026",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-06-09",
     "probability": 0.56,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-10",
     "probability": 0.54,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-11",
     "probability": 0.51,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-12",
     "probability": 0.57,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-13",
     "probability": 0.62,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-14",
     "probability": 0.71,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-15",
     "probability": 0.81,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-16",
     "probability": 0.81,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-17",
     "probability": 0.76,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-18",
     "probability": 0.74,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-19",
     "probability": 0.77,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-20",
     "probability": 0.74,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-21",
     "probability": 0.67,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-22",
     "probability": 0.69,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-23",
     "probability": 0.72,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-24",
     "probability": 0.69,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-25",
     "probability": 0.72,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-26",
     "probability": 0.74,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-27",
     "probability": 0.72,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-28",
     "probability": 0.64,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-29",
     "probability": 0.65,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-30",
     "probability": 0.61,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-01",
     "probability": 0.57,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "probability": 0.57,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-03",
     "probability": 0.58,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-04",
     "probability": 0.6,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-05",
     "probability": 0.57,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-06",
     "probability": 0.54,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.41,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.4,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.375,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.31,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}