{
 "question": "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-fed-decide-differently-in-the-next-three-decisions-jul-sep",
 "category": "econ",
 "as_of": "2026-09-06",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.69,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.49,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.485,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.485,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.44,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.39,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.39,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.4,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.595,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.64,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.58,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.64,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.615,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}