{
 "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-january-2027",
 "category": "econ",
 "as_of": "2026-11-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-10-04",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-13",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "probability": 0.27,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-23",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-24",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-25",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-26",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-27",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-28",
     "probability": 0.355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}