{
 "question": "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-fed-pause-pause-pause-in-the-next-three-decisions-jun-jul-sep",
 "category": "econ",
 "as_of": "2026-09-06",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-09",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.38,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.4,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.49,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.51,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.65,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.64,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.57,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.66,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.72,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.76,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.755,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.765,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.755,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.72,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.715,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.74,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.715,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.685,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.69,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.66,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.48,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.4,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.42,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}