{
 "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 2.5 percentage points?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-u-s-senate-election-a28eda",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-11-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-11-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "El-Sayed, 2.5+ pts",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.627,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}