{
 "question": "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-austria-by-september",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-06",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-12",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.008,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.0135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.014,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.019,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.01,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.008,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.0085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.01,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.01,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.01,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.01,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.0095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.0095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.0095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.0095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.0085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.003,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.003,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.003,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.002,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}