{
 "question": "Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-republican-party-hold-57-or-more-senate-seats-after-the-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-11-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.0145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.0145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.0165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.0145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.0165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.0135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.0055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "probability": 0.0055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.0065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}