{
 "question": "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-republican-party-hold-exactly-54-senate-seats-after-the-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-11-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.021,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.021,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.0205,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.019,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "probability": 0.0245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "probability": 0.0255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.019,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.019,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-13",
     "probability": 0.0235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-14",
     "probability": 0.026,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-15",
     "probability": 0.0265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-16",
     "probability": 0.0265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "probability": 0.0265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-18",
     "probability": 0.026,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-19",
     "probability": 0.0255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-29",
     "probability": 0.009,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-30",
     "probability": 0.0085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.0115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "probability": 0.014,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}