{
 "question": "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-u-s-invade-venezuela-by-december-31-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-11-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.0295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.029,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.029,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "probability": 0.0285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "probability": 0.0305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "probability": 0.0305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "probability": 0.033,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.0325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.0305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-13",
     "probability": 0.031,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-14",
     "probability": 0.031,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-15",
     "probability": 0.0305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-16",
     "probability": 0.0305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-18",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-19",
     "probability": 0.036,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-20",
     "probability": 0.0355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-21",
     "probability": 0.0355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "probability": 0.0355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-23",
     "probability": 0.0325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-24",
     "probability": 0.0325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-26",
     "probability": 0.039,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-27",
     "probability": 0.039,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-28",
     "probability": 0.0325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-29",
     "probability": 0.0325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-30",
     "probability": 0.0325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-31",
     "probability": 0.039,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.038,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.0325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-04",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}