The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Who will win the next presidential election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning

2%

Today’s odds

As of July 9, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Rahm Emanuel leads at 2%.

Unchanged since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Rahm EmanuelThomas Massie
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Rahm Emanuel — Jul 7: 2%Rahm Emanuel — Jul 8: 2%Rahm Emanuel — Jul 9: 2%2%Thomas Massie — Jul 8: 2%Thomas Massie — Jul 9: 2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 8TodayMove
Rahm Emanuel2%2%—
Thomas Massie2%2%—
Full history table
DateRahm EmanuelThomas Massie
2026-07-092%2%
2026-07-082%2%
2026-07-072%—

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.