The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning

2%

Today’s odds

As of July 9, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; the International Court of Justice leads at 2%.

Unchanged since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

the International Court of JusticeRecep Tayyip ErdoğanVladimir Putin
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9the International Court of Justice — Jul 7: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 8: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 9: 2%2%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 7: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 8: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 9: 1.1%Vladimir Putin — Jul 7: 0.4%Vladimir Putin — Jul 8: 0.2%Vladimir Putin — Jul 9: 0.2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 8TodayMove
the International Court of Justice2%2%—
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan1.1%1.1%—
Vladimir Putin0.2%0.2%—
Full history table
Datethe International Court of JusticeRecep Tayyip ErdoğanVladimir Putin
2026-07-092%1.1%0.2%
2026-07-082%1.1%0.2%
2026-07-072%1.1%0.4%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.