Today’s odds
As of July 9, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 93%.
▼ 1 since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Odds Tracker
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning
93%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 93% | 93% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 93% |
| 2026-07-08 | 93% |
| 2026-07-07 | 94% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.