The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Who will be the next leader out before 2027?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning

98%

Today’s odds

As of July 9, 2026, market-consensus odds make Keir Starmer the most likely outcome at 98%.

▲ 1 since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Keir StarmerGustavo PetroXi JinpingEmmanuel MacronSanae Takaichi
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Keir Starmer — Jul 7: 98%Keir Starmer — Jul 8: 97%Keir Starmer — Jul 9: 98%98%Gustavo Petro — Jul 7: 0.4%Gustavo Petro — Jul 8: 0.4%Gustavo Petro — Jul 9: 0.3%Xi Jinping — Jul 7: 0.1%Xi Jinping — Jul 8: 0.1%Xi Jinping — Jul 9: 0.1%Emmanuel Macron — Jul 7: 0.1%Emmanuel Macron — Jul 8: 0.1%Emmanuel Macron — Jul 9: 0.1%Sanae Takaichi — Jul 7: 0.1%Sanae Takaichi — Jul 8: 0.1%Sanae Takaichi — Jul 9: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 8TodayMove
Keir Starmer97%98%▲ 1
Gustavo Petro0.4%0.3%—
Xi Jinping0.1%0.1%—
Emmanuel Macron0.1%0.1%—
Sanae Takaichi0.1%0.1%—
Claudia Sheinbaum—0.1%—
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—0.1%—
Full history table
DateKeir StarmerGustavo PetroXi JinpingEmmanuel MacronSanae TakaichiClaudia SheinbaumRecep Tayyip Erdoğan
2026-07-0998%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-0897%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.1%——
2026-07-0798%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.1%——

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.