Today’s odds
As of July 9, 2026, market-consensus odds make J.D. Vance the most likely outcome at 41%.
Unchanged since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Odds Tracker
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning
41%
How the odds have moved
J.D. VanceRon DeSantisVivek RamaswamyElon MuskGreg Abbott
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 40% | 41% | — |
| Ron DeSantis | 3% | 2% | — |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 1.2% | 1.2% | — |
| Elon Musk | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
| Greg Abbott | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
| Rand Paul | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
| Ted Cruz | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
Full history table
| Date | J.D. Vance | Ron DeSantis | Vivek Ramaswamy | Elon Musk | Greg Abbott | Rand Paul | Ted Cruz | Tulsi Gabbard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 41% | 2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-08 | 40% | 3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-07 | 41% | 3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.