Today’s odds
As of July 9, 2026, market-consensus odds make the Republicans the most likely outcome at 40%.
Unchanged since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Odds Tracker
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning
40%
How the odds have moved
the RepublicansJD VanceGavin NewsomTucker CarlsonAndy Beshear
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | 40% | 40% | — |
| JD Vance | 20% | 20% | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 12% | 12% | — |
| Tucker Carlson | 2% | 2% | — |
| Andy Beshear | 0.9% | 1.1% | — |
| Greg Abbott | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
| Stephen Smith | 0.8% | 0.8% | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.8% | 0.8% | — |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans | JD Vance | Gavin Newsom | Tucker Carlson | Andy Beshear | Greg Abbott | Stephen Smith | Tulsi Gabbard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-08 | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-07 | 40% | 20% | 12% | — | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.