ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 44%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on October 8, 2026 to 44% on October 11, 2026 — a change of 6 points.

ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 44%. The final reading of 44% sits at the top of that range.

ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Tennis · tracked since October 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 11, 2026

44%

Final tracked odds

As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 44%.

▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 44% on October 11, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 10	Today	Move
Carlos Alcaraz	41%	44%	▲ 3

Full history table

Date	Carlos Alcaraz
2026-10-11	44%
2026-10-10	41%
2026-10-09	42%
2026-10-08	38%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 44%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on October 8, 2026 to 44% on October 11, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 44%. The final reading of 44% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins” for 4 days, since October 8, 2026. As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 44%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 38% to 44%, ranging between 38% and 44% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 11, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.