Odds Tracker

Every question we track daily — the current market-consensus odds, and how they got there.

One page per question, updated every morning, with the full probability history free to download. New questions join automatically once they show staying power. Sorted by what moved most since the last update. Last updated 11:43 AM ET.

Showing the 150 questions that moved most today, of 166 we track.

Question		Leaning	Odds
GA Eagles wins? 5 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	78% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 52
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 13 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	26% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania? 62 days of history	Politics	Eugen Tomac	19% ▲ 15 7d: ▼ 10
Where will Folarin Balogun go next? 3 days of history	Everything Else	AS Monaco	82% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 11
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? 45 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	13% ▼ 7 7d: ▲ 4
Will Jenna Dewan win Dancing with the Stars Season 35? 4 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	16% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 19
Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30%? 3 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	2% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 44
Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? 60 days of history	Sports	Mercedes	96% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 7
US strike on Colombia by December 31? 61 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	14% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 22
Will more than 900,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026? 4 days of history	Tennis	Unlikely	34% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 32
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? 24 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	10% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 13
Who will win the 2026 Men's US Open? 62 days of history	Tennis	Alexander Zverev	24% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4
How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026? 10 days of history	Everything Else	Above 8	90% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 1
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? 5 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	25% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 2
Will Ryan Flaherty be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies? 41 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	13% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 19
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? 61 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	64% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 2
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	14% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 5
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	57% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 3
Who will win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? 32 days of history	Everything Else	Barcelona	66% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 10
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	25% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 1
Will there be at least 50 wide film releases in Q4 2026? 6 days of history	Culture	Likely	90% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? 37 days of history	Economy	Likely	62% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 2
Will Rockstar Games release GTA VI Online to the public before 2027? 4 days of history	Culture	Unlikely	16% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4
Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Nashville SC	18% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2
Will there be at least 45 wide film releases in Q4 2026? 7 days of history	Culture	Likely	92% ▼ 2
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? 4 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	1.1% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2
No one announced as next James Bond? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	24% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 3
Brazil unemployment rate in August 2026? 7 days of history	Economy	Above 5.2%	72% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 5
Will Cindy Coyne be the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor in Rhode Island? 3 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	3% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2
5kt meteor strike in 2026? 44 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	24% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	40% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? 62 days of history	Politics	Abiy Ahmed	97% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	19% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? 20 days of history	Economy	Toss-up	50% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? 3 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	16% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	42% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? 43 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	40% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 5
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? 39 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	14% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? 35 days of history	Economy	Toss-up	50% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? 49 days of history	Economy	Unlikely	8% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2
What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Democrat	96% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 3 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	2% ▲ 1
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Will Sue AnderBois be the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor in Rhode Island? 3 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	2% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz after himself? 4 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	2% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 29
Will Augusto Cury finish 5th in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 3 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	8% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? 3 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 5
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? 46 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	86% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 8
Who will win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? 62 days of history	Politics	Likely	98% ▼ 1
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? 8 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	10% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? 55 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% ▲ 1
Who will win the 2026 NL East title? 36 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	1.4% ▲ 1
Who will win the 2026 Women’s US Open? 62 days of history	Tennis	Wide open	7% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	26% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? 61 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 12
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	10% ▲ 1
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? 15 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	49% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 17
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? 46 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	14% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? 26 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	9% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 15
Who will win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? 58 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	60% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 12
New pandemic in 2026? 60 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% —
Will Aaron Donald win the Comeback Player of the Year? 4 days of history	NFL	Unlikely	7% —
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? 46 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	23% — 7d: ▼ 2
Who will win the 2027 NBA Finals? 62 days of history	NBA	Philadelphia 76ers	11% — 7d: ▼ 2
Who will win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? 49 days of history	Premier League	Wide open	0.7% —
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 42 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? 2 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.4% —
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 48 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.7% —
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▼ 2
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 62 days of history	Everything Else	J.D. Vance	50% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	1.5% —
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
Who will win the 2026 World Series? 62 days of history	MLB	Wide open	7% — 7d: ▲ 1
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? 60 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	7% — 7d: ▼ 1
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? 45 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	95% — 7d: ▲ 4
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 31 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? 62 days of history	Politics	Wide open	0.1% —
Who will win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? 58 days of history	NFL	Wide open	0.5% —
Who will win the 2026 National League Championship Series? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	4% —
Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 49 days of history	Everything Else	Apple	13% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2026 American League Championship Series? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.8% —
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 45 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	1.4% —
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? 53 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% —
Will BP be acquired before 2027? 55 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.7% — 7d: ▼ 0
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? 28 days of history	NBA	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 62 days of history	Politics	the Democrats	60% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	14% — 7d: ▲ 2
Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.1% —
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? 22 days of history	Economy	Unlikely	0.4% —
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% —
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? 62 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▼ 1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? 30 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? 43 days of history	Champions League	Bayern Munich	14% —
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 62 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will win the 2027 NFL league championship? 62 days of history	NFL	the Los Angeles Rams	16% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	8% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? 62 days of history	NFL	Wide open	7% —
Who will be the top grossing movie of 2026? 50 days of history	Culture	Wide open	6% — 7d: ▼ 2
Who will win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? 62 days of history	NBA	Wide open	2% —
Who will win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? 55 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.7% —
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? 41 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	70% — 7d: ▼ 2
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	18% — 7d: ▲ 3
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? 35 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.1% —
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? 8 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.9% — 7d: ▼ 3
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? 39 days of history	MLB	Unlikely	0.5% —
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? 46 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.9% —
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? 37 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	10% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 49 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.5% —
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	14% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? 47 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	8% — 7d: ▼ 5
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
Will Kevin Gausman strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? 62 days of history	MLB	Unlikely	0.5% —
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 42 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.5% —
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? 24 days of history	Politics	Likely	64% —
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 15 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? 12 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% —
Will James Harden play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? 47 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? 36 days of history	Politics	Wide open	0.1% —
Who will win the 2026 National League MVP Award? 47 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.1% —
Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election? 62 days of history	Politics	Wide open	0.1% —
Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 50 days of history	UFC	Wide open	0.1% —
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? 36 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	34% — 7d: ▲ 3
Will Ronald Acuña Jr. hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? 18 days of history	MLB	Unlikely	0.1% —
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? 48 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	8% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	56% — 7d: ▼ 14
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? 33 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	12% —
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	18% — 7d: ▼ 7
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? 36 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? 54 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.8% —
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? 14 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? 47 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	62% — 7d: ▲ 3
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 46 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 45 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? 49 days of history	Economy	Unlikely	2% —
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? 44 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.2% —
Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award? 43 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? 45 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	27% — 7d: ▲ 1
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? 17 days of history	Economy	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▼ 9
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? 46 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.3% —
Who will be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 55 days of history	UFC	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? 23 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	34% — 7d: ▼ 2
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? 42 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	20% — 7d: ▼ 1

Done deciding? 599 completed questions live on with their final odds.

Data miners welcome. Every tracked question publishes its full daily history as JSON and CSV — see the open data page or data/index.json for the machine-readable directory. Free to reuse with a link back.