Odds Tracker

Every question we track daily — the current market-consensus odds, and how they got there.

One page per question, updated every morning, with the full probability history free to download. New questions join automatically once they show staying power. Sorted by what moved most since the last update. Last updated 4:01 AM ET.

All 139 tracked questions, A to Z.

Question		Leaning	Odds
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	18% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 52
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? 3 days of history	Politics	Toss-up	49% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 20
Tariq Simons wins? 2 days of history	Tennis	Likely	86% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 17
Mitchell Dobek wins? 2 days of history	Tennis	Unlikely	14% ▼ 17 7d: ▼ 17
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	18% ▼ 10 7d: ▼ 10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? 8 days of history	Politics	Likely	64% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 9
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? 45 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	62% ▲ 8 7d: ▼ 7
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? 27 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	36% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 72 days of history	Politics	Benjamin Netanyahu	26% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 20
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? 4 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 8
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Jon Ossoff	24% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 9
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? 33 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	10% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? 19 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	8% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 10
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? 9 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 121 days of history	Everything Else	J.D. Vance	31% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 8
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	28% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 1
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026? 3 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	15% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? 14 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	61% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 13
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026? 32 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	85% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? 9 days of history	Economy	Likely	72% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 15
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 121 days of history	Politics	JD Vance	15% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? 8 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	56% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 17
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? 30 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? 38 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	38% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 3
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? 34 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2027 CFP National Championship? 32 days of history	Everything Else	Miami Hurricanes	14% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 4
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? 60 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? 25 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	60% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 7
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? 8 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	90% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 3
5kt meteor strike in 2026? 81 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	10% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 5
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? 39 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	11% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 4
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? 52 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	13% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? 44 days of history	Sports	Unlikely	13% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 4
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? 23 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.1% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? 26 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	97% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? 2 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Who will be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 68 days of history	UFC	Unlikely	1.3% ▼ 1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? 36 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	10% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? 17 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 4
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? 121 days of history	Politics	Wide open	4% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Ebola pandemic in 2026? 12 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? 30 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 58 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? 14 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	7% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Who will win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? 121 days of history	NFL	Wide open	4% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Inter Miami CF	18% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? 50 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	86% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2
Who will win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? 109 days of history	NFL	Wide open	9% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? 73 days of history	Politics	Javier Milei	46% ▲ 1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? 16 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	34% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	64% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 2
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? 18 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	12% ▲ 1
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? 3 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	35% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan? 2 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
NATO article 5 before 2027? 46 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? 76 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	77% — 7d: ▲ 16
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? 53 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? 2 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 108 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.9% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? 8 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▼ 18
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 1
Iran nuclear test before 2027? 37 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? 117 days of history	Everything Else	Kevin McGonigle	96% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? 27 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.1% — 7d: ▼ 1
GTA 6 launch postponed again? 34 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 5
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? 31 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 1
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 34 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	1.5% —
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 12 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.5% —
Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Texas? 2 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 75 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.3% —
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? 20 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.9% —
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? 121 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	2% —
Xi Jinping out before 2027? 49 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 2
Who will be the top artist for 2026? 57 days of history	Everything Else	Drake	11% — 7d: ▲ 7
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? 34 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	93% — 7d: ▼ 1
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? 62 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? 112 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% —
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? 119 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% —
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? 86 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
Who will win the 2026 National League MVP Award? 100 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	1.0% —
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 93 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.3% —
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 87 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 69 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 33 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.7% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? 80 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.9% —
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	99.2% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.1% —
Who will win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? 102 days of history	Champions League	Arsenal	14% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% — 7d: ▼ 1
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
Who will win the 2027 NBA Finals? 121 days of history	NBA	Wide open	0.4% —
Who will win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? 108 days of history	Premier League	Wide open	0.4% —
Who will win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? 89 days of history	Everything Else	Real Madrid	24% —
Who will be the top grossing movie of 2026? 109 days of history	Culture	Wide open	0.1% —
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain? 29 days of history	Politics	Pedro Sánchez	12% —
Who will be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 109 days of history	UFC	Wide open	0.1% —
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? 85 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 107 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.4% —
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? 121 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? 24 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	94% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 101 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.5% —
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? 79 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 74 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.4% —
Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? 119 days of history	Sports	Unlikely	0.3% —
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? 31 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	56% — 7d: ▲ 1
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? 53 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
Who will win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? 114 days of history	NBA	Wide open	0.2% —
Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election? 118 days of history	Politics	Wide open	0.6% — 7d: ▼ 10
Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 86 days of history	UFC	Wide open	0.1% —
Will Republicans win Alaska, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio? 2 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? 15 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? 69 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	7% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Texas? 2 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? 8 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	20% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 73 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? 82 days of history	Economy	Unlikely	2% —
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? 78 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▼ 2
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? 82 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? 81 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.2% —
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? 35 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▼ 3
Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award? 82 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? 85 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	18% — 7d: ▲ 3
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? 78 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% —
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? 68 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? 35 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	34% — 7d: ▼ 5
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? 17 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? 14 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% — 7d: ▼ 3
Who will be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? 44 days of history	Bundesliga	Wide open	0.8% —
Who will win the 2026 NFL MVP? 76 days of history	NFL	Josh Allen	32% —
Who will win the next Taipei Mayor election? 20 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? 113 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will win the next presidential election? 13 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.5% —
Wild Horse Nine Rotten Tomatoes score? 9 days of history	Culture	Above 91	90% —

Done deciding? 1057 completed questions live on with their final odds.

Data miners welcome. Every tracked question publishes its full daily history as JSON and CSV — see the open data page or data/index.json for the machine-readable directory. Free to reuse with a link back.