Today’s Number
Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week?
Market-consensus odds put Above 120K at 78% this morning. · ▲ 63 points overnight
The Morning Line
What's going to happen — and how likely. Every morning.
Edition of July 9, 2026 · built from 8,339 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories.
78%
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since yesterday morning — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Was | Now | Move | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $3.880? Above 3.880 | Everything Else | 4% | 93% | ▲ 89 |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026? Special convention | Everything Else | 24% | 96% | ▲ 72 |
| Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 120K | Culture | 16% | 78% | ▲ 63 |
| Will Desire Doue start for France? Desire Doue starts for France | Sports | 26% | 89% | ▲ 62 |
| Will Kayda be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Kayda | Everything Else | 50% | 12% | ▼ 38 |
| Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 100000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 100K | Culture | 8% | 60% | ▲ 52 |
| Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)? July 6 | Everything Else | 57% | 12% | ▼ 45 |
| Will Alexander Zverev qualify for Final at the 2026 Wimbledon Men Singles tennis tournament? Alexander Zverev | Sports | 37% | 85% | ▲ 48 |
| Genesis Scottish Open: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 1? Rory McIlroy | Sports | 32% | 87% | ▲ 55 |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in December 2026? Above $1.50 | Everything Else | 98% | 48% | ▼ 50 |
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Coco Gauff win the Muchova vs Gauff: Semifinal match? Coco Gauff · settles today | Sports | 39% |
| Norway vs England: To Advance Norway advances · settles in 2 days | Sports | 36% |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles? Jannik Sinner · settles in 4 days | Sports | 64% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 10 days | Sports | 32% |
| Spain vs Belgium: To Advance Belgium advances · settles tomorrow | Sports | 26% |
| France vs Morocco: To Advance Morocco advances · settles today | Sports | 22% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 10 days | Sports | 20% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 10 days | Sports | 19% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 174 days | Everything Else | 16% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 10 days | Sports | 16% |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Guy Den Ouden win the Coria vs Den Ouden: Round Of 16 match? Guy Den Ouden · settles today | Sports | 94.0% |
| Will Ksenia Smirnova win the Chapman vs Smirnova: W35 Hillcrest Round of 16 match? Ksenia Smirnova · settles today | Sports | 94.5% |
| Will Kenzie be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Kenzie · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 95.5% |
| Will Dylan be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Dylan · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 95.5% |
| Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 100K · settles in 3 days | Culture | 93.5% |
| The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 92 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.0% |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 67.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 10, 2026? Above $67.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 97.5% |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 68.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 10, 2026? Above $68.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 96.0% |
| Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.60% in Jun 2026? Above 4.60% · settles today | Economy | 95.5% |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7479.9999 on Jul 9, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,480 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.5% |