The Morning Line

What's going to happen — and how likely. Every day.

Edition of November 4, 2026 · built from 1,988 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Updated 4:01 AM ET.

What changed — and why

24%

Everything Else

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

▲ 7 points overnight · settles in 735 days

Jon Ossoff: Thomas Jonathan Ossoff is an American politician who has served as the senior United States senator from Georgia since 2021. Wikipedia
Jon Ossoff wins reelection in Georgia, easily defeating Republican Mike Collins wxxinews.org
Democrat Jon Ossoff wins reelection to U. S. Senate from Georgia wyff4.com
Readership of the Jon Ossoff Wikipedia page is 2.4× its normal level — public attention is on this right now.
Today’s move is bigger than any daily move we have tracked on it — unusual for this market, not just large in the abstract.
Has traded between 14% and 24% over 38 tracked days — today is its high — see the full history.

31%

Everything Else

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

▼ 6 points overnight · settles in 735 days

J.D. Vance: James David Vance is an American politician, author, and venture capitalist serving as the 50th vice president of the United States. Wikipedia
Today’s move is bigger than 99% of this question’s daily moves — unusual for this market, not just large in the abstract.
Has traded between 31% and 53% over 121 tracked days — today is its low — see the full history.

How it turned out

How It Turned Out

Questions we published while they were still open, and how they actually resolved — quoting the market as it stood that morning.

Question		What happened	Market said
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson	Politics	Happened The market said 66% on July 19. It happened.	66%
Will Democrats win exactly 11 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania? 11	Politics	Happened The market said 22% on August 22. It happened.	22%
Manchin Senate combo: Both lose? Both lose	Politics	Happened The market said 60% on September 17. It happened.	60%
Will Nobody Wants This: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Nov 2, 2026? Nobody Wants This: Season 3	Culture	Happened The market said 64% on October 29. It happened.	64%
Will The One About Matthew Perry: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Nov 2, 2026? The One About Matthew Perry: Season 1	Culture	Happened The market said 68% on October 29. It happened.	68%
Will Surviving Hurricane Otis be Top US Netflix Movie on Nov 2, 2026? Surviving Hurricane Otis	Culture	Happened The market said 78% on October 30. It happened.	78%

Still open

Where the Money Is

The questions with the most money riding on an answer that is still genuinely in doubt, grouped by when they settle.

Settling within 48 hours

20%

Tennis

Oleg Kolninov wins

Oleg Kolninov

settles today · 523,149 contracts traded

80%

Everything Else

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?

settles today · 321,926 dollars traded

Real Madrid Club de Fútbol is a Spanish professional association football club based in Madrid. Wikipedia

Settling this week

48%

NFL

Full Game: over 45.5 points scored?

Over 45.5 points

▼ 2 points overnight · settles in 6 days · 618,613 contracts traded

18%

NASCAR

Cup Series: Kyle Larson wins

Kyle Larson

settles in 5 days · 54,610 contracts traded

Kyle Miyata Larson is an American professional racing driver. Wikipedia
1 related question on the same event moved the same way — Denny Hamlin ▼3

Longer horizon

50%

Politics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points?

James Talarico, 12+ pts

settles in 364 days · 274,246 contracts traded

16%

Everything Else

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

▼ 1 point overnight · settles in 58 days · 77,233,542 dollars traded

Has traded between 12% and 30% over 121 tracked days — see the full history.

The full board for today — everything that moved, everything still up in the air, and what settles next — is in today’s complete edition.