What's going to happen — and how likely. Every day.
Edition of September 5, 2026 · built from 4,221 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Updated 11:30 AM ET.
What changed — and why
How it turned out
Questions we published while they were still open, and how they actually resolved — quoting the market as it stood that morning.
| Question | What happened | Market said | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will NZDUSD be Above 0.587 at 5pm ET on Sep 04? Above 0.587 | Everything Else | Happened The market said 29% on September 2. It happened. | 29% |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29529.99 at the end of Sep 4, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,530 or above | Markets | Happened The market said 65% on September 4. It happened. | 65% |
| Will Dan Driscoll be out as Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027 | Everything Else | Happened The market said 81% on August 27. It happened. | 81% |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.7 and 39.9 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.7 to 39.9 | Politics | Happened The market said 26% on August 29. It happened. | 26% |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026? Above $90.99 | Commodities | Happened The market said 62% on September 3. It happened. | 62% |
| Anyone's Legend wins Anyone's Legend | Everything Else | Happened The market said 66% on September 4. It happened. | 66% |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on an answer that is still genuinely in doubt, grouped by when they settle.
The full board for today — everything that moved, everything still up in the air, and what settles next — is in today’s complete edition.