Final tracked odds
As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 18%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 23, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 17, 2026
18%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 16 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 18% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 18% |
| 2026-08-16 | 18% |
| 2026-08-15 | 18% |
| 2026-08-14 | 17% |
| 2026-08-13 | 18% |
| 2026-08-12 | 17% |
| 2026-08-11 | 18% |
| 2026-08-10 | 18% |
| 2026-08-09 | 18% |
| 2026-08-08 | 17% |
| 2026-08-07 | 16% |
| 2026-08-06 | 14% |
| 2026-08-05 | 14% |
| 2026-08-04 | 17% |
| 2026-08-03 | 18% |
| 2026-07-23 | 36% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 17, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 16 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on July 23, 2026 to 18% on August 17, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 16 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 36%. The final reading of 18% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31” for 16 days, since July 23, 2026. As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 18%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 36% to 18%, ranging between 14% and 36% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.