Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 40%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
40%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 40% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 40% |
| 2026-11-02 | 40% |
| 2026-10-31 | 44% |
| 2026-10-30 | 44% |
| 2026-10-29 | 44% |
| 2026-10-28 | 40% |
| 2026-10-27 | 40% |
| 2026-10-26 | 38% |
| 2026-10-25 | 38% |
| 2026-10-24 | 38% |
| 2026-10-23 | 38% |
| 2026-10-22 | 39% |
| 2026-10-21 | 38% |
| 2026-10-20 | 38% |
| 2026-10-19 | 37% |
| 2026-10-18 | 37% |
| 2026-10-17 | 38% |
| 2026-10-04 | 43% |
| 2026-10-03 | 44% |
| 2026-09-30 | 50% |
| 2026-09-29 | 49% |
| 2026-09-28 | 58% |
| 2026-09-26 | 60% |
| 2026-09-25 | 60% |
| 2026-09-24 | 60% |
| 2026-09-23 | 56% |
| 2026-09-22 | 56% |
| 2026-09-21 | 56% |
| 2026-09-19 | 54% |
| 2026-09-18 | 52% |
| 2026-08-08 | 54% |
| 2026-08-07 | 50% |
| 2026-08-06 | 50% |
| 2026-08-05 | 52% |
| 2026-08-04 | 53% |
| 2026-08-03 | 55% |
| 2026-08-02 | 55% |
| 2026-08-01 | 57% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Base FDV above $2B one day after launch — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 40%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Base FDV above $2B one day after launch — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 38 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 57% on August 1, 2026 to 40% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 17 points.
- Base FDV above $2B one day after launch — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 38 tracked days the odds ranged between 37% and 60%. The current reading of 40% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Base FDV above $2B one day after launch” for 38 days, since August 1, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 40%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 57% to 40%, ranging between 37% and 60% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.