Final tracked odds
As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?
Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 1, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 6% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 6% |
| 2026-10-21 | 8% |
| 2026-10-20 | 7% |
| 2026-10-19 | 8% |
| 2026-10-18 | 8% |
| 2026-10-17 | 8% |
| 2026-10-16 | 6% |
| 2026-10-15 | 6% |
| 2026-10-14 | 8% |
| 2026-10-13 | 7% |
| 2026-10-12 | 8% |
| 2026-10-11 | 8% |
| 2026-10-10 | 8% |
| 2026-10-09 | 8% |
| 2026-10-08 | 8% |
| 2026-10-07 | 8% |
| 2026-10-06 | 7% |
| 2026-10-05 | 5% |
| 2026-10-04 | 5% |
| 2026-10-03 | 5% |
| 2026-10-02 | 4% |
| 2026-10-01 | 4% |
| 2026-08-11 | 11% |
| 2026-08-10 | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 4% |
| 2026-08-07 | 12% |
| 2026-08-06 | 12% |
| 2026-08-05 | 10% |
| 2026-08-04 | 10% |
| 2026-08-03 | 10% |
| 2026-08-02 | 10% |
| 2026-08-01 | 10% |
| 2026-07-21 | 14% |
| 2026-07-20 | 14% |
| 2026-07-13 | 12% |
| 2026-07-12 | 12% |
| 2026-07-08 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 38 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on July 8, 2026 to 6% on November 1, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 38 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 14%. The final reading of 6% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B” for 38 days, since July 8, 2026. As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 6%, ranging between 4% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.