Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 6% |
| 2026-09-05 | 6% |
| 2026-09-04 | 6% |
| 2026-09-03 | 12% |
| 2026-09-02 | 10% |
| 2026-09-01 | 10% |
| 2026-08-11 | 16% |
| 2026-08-10 | 16% |
| 2026-08-09 | 16% |
| 2026-08-08 | 16% |
| 2026-08-07 | 16% |
| 2026-08-06 | 12% |
| 2026-08-05 | 12% |
| 2026-08-04 | 12% |
| 2026-08-03 | 12% |
| 2026-08-02 | 12% |
| 2026-08-01 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on August 1, 2026 to 6% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 16%. The current reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting” for 17 days, since August 1, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.