Final tracked odds
As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 31, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-30 | 0.3% |
| 2026-07-29 | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-28 | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-26 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-25 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-24 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-23 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-22 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-21 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-20 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-19 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-18 | 1.2% |
| 2026-07-17 | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-16 | 1.2% |
| 2026-07-15 | 1.4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 1.4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 2% |
| 2026-07-12 | 2% |
| 2026-07-11 | 2% |
| 2026-07-10 | 2% |
| 2026-07-09 | 2% |
| 2026-07-08 | 2% |
| 2026-07-07 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 25 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on July 7, 2026 to 0.1% on July 31, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31” for 25 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 2% to 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.