Final tracked odds
As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 84%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Politics · tracked since August 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 4, 2026
84%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 84% | 84% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 84% |
| 2026-09-03 | 84% |
| 2026-09-02 | 84% |
| 2026-08-14 | 78% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 84%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 78% on August 14, 2026 to 84% on September 4, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 78% and 84%. The final reading of 84% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30” for 4 days, since August 14, 2026. As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 84%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 78% to 84%, ranging between 78% and 84% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.