Matteo Arnaldi wins — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 32%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Matteo Arnaldi wins — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 55% on August 28, 2026 to 32% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 23 points.

Matteo Arnaldi wins — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 32% and 64%. The final reading of 32% sits at the bottom of that range.

Matteo Arnaldi wins?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Matteo Arnaldi wins?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Tennis · tracked since August 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026

32%

Final tracked odds

As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 32%.

▼ 29 since the previous update. ▼ 24 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 62% on August 31, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 30	Today	Move
Matteo Arnaldi	60%	32%	▼ 29

Full history table

Date	Matteo Arnaldi
2026-08-31	32%
2026-08-30	60%
2026-08-29	64%
2026-08-28	55%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Matteo Arnaldi wins — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 32%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Matteo Arnaldi wins — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 55% on August 28, 2026 to 32% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 23 points.
Matteo Arnaldi wins — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 32% and 64%. The final reading of 32% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Matteo Arnaldi wins” for 4 days, since August 28, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 32%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 55% to 32%, ranging between 32% and 64% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.