Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 9, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 6% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 6% |
| 2026-11-02 | 8% |
| 2026-10-31 | 8% |
| 2026-10-30 | 8% |
| 2026-10-29 | 8% |
| 2026-10-28 | 6% |
| 2026-10-27 | 8% |
| 2026-10-26 | 8% |
| 2026-10-25 | 8% |
| 2026-10-24 | 8% |
| 2026-10-23 | 8% |
| 2026-10-22 | 8% |
| 2026-10-21 | 8% |
| 2026-10-20 | 8% |
| 2026-10-19 | 8% |
| 2026-10-18 | 8% |
| 2026-10-17 | 7% |
| 2026-10-16 | 7% |
| 2026-10-14 | 7% |
| 2026-10-08 | 8% |
| 2026-10-05 | 10% |
| 2026-10-04 | 10% |
| 2026-10-03 | 10% |
| 2026-10-02 | 10% |
| 2026-10-01 | 10% |
| 2026-09-30 | 10% |
| 2026-09-29 | 10% |
| 2026-09-28 | 10% |
| 2026-09-25 | 12% |
| 2026-09-24 | 12% |
| 2026-09-23 | 12% |
| 2026-09-22 | 12% |
| 2026-09-21 | 12% |
| 2026-09-09 | 20% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 34 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on September 9, 2026 to 6% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 34 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 20%. The current reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026” for 34 days, since September 9, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 20% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 20% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.